UK Labour's Civil War
In 2026, Labour lost the Gordon and Denton seat to the Green Party.This loss could not possibly be chalked off, since it was a previous labour stronghold, but also fully preventable...
A month ago, Labour lost Gorton and Denton, a vacant parliamentary seat that was regarded as a Labour stronghold, receiving a plurality of votes in the 2024 general Election.
Instead, in 2 short years, the traditional left-wing party Labour lost the seat and fell to third in the by-election polls, where the rising left-wing Green Party ultimately won the seat with 40.7% of the vote, followed by the rising right-wing party Reform UK with 28.7% of the vote. A shocking loss for Labour, which has suffered a landslide drop in popularity ever since winning the general election two years ago.
All of this, however, could have been avoided.
Andy Burnham, as a successful Mancunian Mayor, applied as an MP to run in Gorton and Denton’s byelection. As a politician that polls illustrate is more popular than the prime minister, Sir Kier Starmer himself, when Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) then blocked him from standing, it came as a shock to many. Explaining that it was to prevent a hugely destabilising election to replace him as the mayor of Greater Manchester, this raised a question among many voters: Are we seeing a civil war unfold within the Labour Party?
Burnham (left) and Starmer (Right)
Zeffman, Henry. 2025. “Andy Burnham’s Provocative Challenge to Starmer Shows He Is Serious.” Bbc.com. BBC News. September 25, 2025. http://bbc.com/news/articles/cx275r1l3xpo.
Starmer and Burnham: Friends to enemies?
To fully understand the story, we must go back to the beginning. In 2024, with a landslide of 411 seats, Sir Kier Starmer’s Labour Party won a majority. But ever since that initial success, none seemed to have followed. Trifled with controversy, failures and empty promises, Starmer’s popularity had dropped significantly since the General Election two years ago. From an unusually high +10 per cent, his popularity has now sunk to -54%, according to a YouGov poll at the end of December 2025. Recent updates, like former British ambassador Peter Mandelson’s relations with confirmed sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, had increased disapproval ratings for Starmer, who was now feeling the heat. Furthermore, the rise of non-traditional parties from both the left and right, Green and Reform, respectively, had divided previous voting inclinations and chipped away at the one strong support.
This ought to have changed at the start of the year. Reviewing Burnham's political past, he had held many cabinet and shadow cabinet roles for Labour throughout the years under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, serving as Chief Secretary to the Treasury and later as Health Secretary. He ran for Labour leadership twice: the first in 2010, finishing second to Ed Miliband, and the second time in 2015, losing to Jeremy Corbyn. Although never selected as the candidate for the job, he’d proven himself as a moderate candidate who was a uniting power in a divided Labour Party.
Since becoming Greater Manchester's mayor in 2017, Burnham had cultivated his distinct political brand. Unlike Westminster Labour, trapped in policy U-turns, personalities butting heads, Burnham delivered concrete wins: freezing bus fares, expanding youth services, and vocally opposing austerity measures that stretched the economic north-south divide. The media dubbed him "King of the North", and Manchester’s steady growth became a snapshot of what Labour could be. Labour could be grounded and a party truly for the working class.
His popularity wasn't abstract. A December 2025 poll by Savanta showed Burnham had a net approval rating of +28% among Greater Manchester residents, while Starmer tumbled to -37% nationally. Even within Labour circles, many whispered that Burnham represented the future, Starmer the flailing present.
When Andrew Gwynne resigned his Gorton and Denton seat to become Deputy Mayor, it seemed the perfect opportunity. Burnham could return to Westminster, bringing his northern credibility to a party that failed to deliver. According to The Guardian, senior Labour MPs privately urged Burnham to stand, viewing his candidacy as a potential "reset moment" for the government's troubled narrative.
Then came the veto.
Before becoming Mayor, Burnham took multiple different jobs in the Labour cabinet
Zeffman, Henry. 2025. “Andy Burnham’s Provocative Challenge to Starmer Shows He Is Serious.” Bbc.com. BBC News. September 25, 2025. http://bbc.com/news/articles/cx275r1l3xpo.
The NEC Blockade
On January 14th, Labour's NEC convened to approve candidates for the by-election. In a move that stunned political observers, they rejected Burnham's application. The official explanation? Allowing him to stand would trigger another costly mayoral election, creating "unnecessary instability" in Greater Manchester's governance.
The reasoning caused immediate backlash. As The Independent reported, the real cost of a mayoral by-election would be roughly £5 million, a minor inconvenience compared to the political cost of losing Gorton and Denton. More damningly, several NEC members leaked to Politico that the decision came "from the very top," suggesting Starmer himself manipulated the results.
One possible simple answer for this lies in politics’ oldest currency: power.
Burnham wasn't just popular. He was a direct threat. His return to Parliament would inevitably fuel leadership speculation with a possible new candidate for Labour as the next prime minister. Every policy failure, every poll collapse, every backbench rebellion troubled Starmer with the same question: "Would Burnham have handled this better?" For a Prime Minister already fighting accusations of being out of touch, introducing a more popular rival is more like announcing his own political death.
According to a Financial Times analysis, Starmer's inner circle viewed Burnham as a "Trojan horse". In other words, the Mancunian mayor could galvanise dissatisfied Labour MPs into mounting a challenge. With whispers of a no-confidence vote already circulating in the House of Commons, the last thing Starmer needed was a charismatic alternative casting a shadow on the future of his tenure.
So, he chose party control over electoral victory. He chose personal survival over political strategy.
Labour's historical landslide
POLITICO Europe. 2026. “The UK Green Party Stormed to Victory in Thursday’s By-Election in the Labour Stronghold of Gorton and Denton, Bagging over 40 Percent of the Vote.” LinkedIn. February 27, 2026. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/politico-europe_the-uk-green-party-stormed-to-victory-in-activity-7433056250260594688-_uQg/.
The Collapse
The consequences arrived swiftly. Without Burnham, Labour enlisted Angeliki Stogia, a local councillor who lacked name recognition and struggled to differentiate himself from Starmer's unpopular government as a viable candidate. Meanwhile, the Greens ran on an anti-establishment, pro-climate platform that captured disillusioned left-wing voters, while Reform UK mobilised cultural conservatives frustrated with Labour's ineffectiveness.
The results? Greens 40.7%, Reform 28.7%, Labour 23.1%.
The Manchester Evening News called it "a humiliation born of hubris." The Economist described it as "the moment Labour's internal contradictions became electoral liabilities." But perhaps most devastating was Burnham's own response. In a direct callout of London, he told reporters: "When parties prioritise internal politics over public service, voters notice. And they punish accordingly."
The Gorton and Denton loss isn't just about one seat. It's a preview of Labour's existential crisis. It is not the party it was two decades ago, not that of two years ago, but a party so consumed by factional warfare that it would rather lose than allow the wrong person to win. As the Greens and Reform chip away at Labour's coalition from both flanks, Starmer's gamble looks increasingly reckless.
The question now isn't whether Labour is fighting a civil war. It's whether party politics will ultimately cast a political end for all those involved.